In Comstock’s Third Quarter Market Commentary, our Chief Investment Officer, Steve Browne, CFA, provided insight as to the impact election years have had on the markets. If you could go back to the beginning of any election year and ask: Had I known the outcome, would there have been easy money to make picking stocks or timing the market? Aside from perhaps some modest sector volatility, such as buying defense stocks if the Republican candidate wins, it is difficult to make a case for this foreknowledge being particularly valuable.
With Election Day polls opening in less than 24 hours, emotions are running high – a dangerous influence on investment portfolio decision making. The media is saturated with stories laden with speculation. We prefer to focus on the data, in particular data that is relevant to long term investors. We appreciate Oliver Renick’s article in today’s Bloomberg Markets, Don’t Worry When the Stock Market Goes Crazy After Election, citing additional analysis on the impact of Election Day results and the markets. Historical analysis illustrates the true impact Election Day outcomes have on the market for long term, and even short term investors. This year’s election has unique characteristics and all the more reason to dive into the data before gambling on any decisions in the moment.