Russia’s Ukraine Invasion will Accelerate Deglobalization and Increase Inflation Risks
Russia invaded Ukraine this week in the largest European military action since World War Two. At this point, Putin’s goal looks to be overthrowing the democratically elected government and installing a puppet regime, like that which ruled the country before the 2014 Revolution. While Russia
The Beginning of the End?
With the election results and positive vaccine news, investors now possess a clearer picture of the next few years. A Biden victory, without the predicted ‘Blue Wave’ giving the Democrats dominance in the Senate, reduces the likelihood of major policy changes. A smaller fiscal stimulus may be the first change. The Democrats had planned on
The End of the Beginning
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Winston Churchill Equity markets continue to rally as the COVID-19 pandemic in the US and Europe appears to be peaking. After
Update on Market Volatility
The last several weeks have seen historic moves in the markets. Large swings, up and down, within a single day have challenged some of the steadiest of investors. This week’s headlines include a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months. The fiscal
The Panic Begins
Panic selling began in the equity markets this week as the scope of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to grow. When we pointed out the emergence of the virus as an economic risk back in January, hope remained that it could be contained. Now, we face
Markets Begin to Price in the Risks of a Pandemic
2020 began with global markets for stocks and other risky assets priced for Global equity markets woke up to the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak, with the S&P 500 declining over 10% from its peak through yesterday. Foreign stocks fared slightly better with
Is the Wuhan Coronavirus a Catalyst for the Next Downturn?
Expansions do not die of old age – they get murdered. paraphrase of a 2019 exchange between former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke The outbreak of a new coronavirus in China poses risks to the rosy economic and market outlook that dominated at
When It Comes to Money, Silence Is Rarely Golden
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