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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. – John Kenneth Galbraith The economic recovery continued to gain momentum and drive equity values higher. The S&P 500 returned 8.5% during the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date return to 15.2%. Small cap US stocks lagged the S&P 500 during the quarter, remained… » read more

What investment can we find which offers real fixity or certainty of income? …the man or woman who invests in bonds is speculating in the general level of prices, or the purchasing power of money. – Irving Fisher After successful COVID vaccine announcements and a massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, the market last… » read more

In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable. – Dwight D. Eisenhower The successful launch of two separate vaccines accelerated the recovery in the equity markets during the quarter, leading the S&P to end the year with a return of 18.4%. With an end to the pandemic… » read more

With the election results and positive vaccine news, investors now possess a clearer picture of the next few years.  A Biden victory, without the predicted ‘Blue Wave’ giving the Democrats dominance in the Senate, reduces the likelihood of major policy changes.  A smaller fiscal stimulus may be the first change.  The Democrats had planned on a massive fiscal stimulus, and now a more modest package seems likely. … » read more

Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return. – Warren Buffett The recovery in the equity markets continued, with the S&P 500 returning 8.9% and the broader MSCI All-Country World Index returning… » read more

…once the investor pays a substantial amount for the growth factor, he is inevitably assuming certain kinds of risk; viz., that the growth will be less than he anticipates, that over the long pull he will have paid too much for what he gets, that for a considerable period the market will value the stock… » read more

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Winston Churchill Equity markets continue to rally as the COVID-19 pandemic in the US and Europe appears to be peaking.  After the Federal Reserve stepped in to backstop the fixed income… » read more

The last several weeks have seen historic moves in the markets.  Large swings, up and down, within a single day have challenged some of the steadiest of investors. This week’s headlines include a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months. The fiscal magnitude of shutting down much of our global economy remains… » read more

What a different world we face today than at the end of last year. The shutdown of the global economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic created a recession that threatens to surpass that of 2008-2009. In response, governments announced a massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus, but the length of the recession remains uncertain as long as the coronavirus remains unchecked.

Panic selling began in the equity markets this week as the scope of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to grow.  When we pointed out the emergence of the virus as an economic risk back in January, hope remained that it could be contained.  Now, we face a global pandemic with sustained outbreaks in several US cities. … » read more